Business area outlook for Q3 2025 as provided in the Q2 2025 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

• Alunorte production at nameplate capacity
• Higher bauxite costs of between NOK 50 - 100 million
• Stable raw material costs
• Stable fixed and other costs

Important takeaways from the Q2 2025 Earnings Call:
“ For Q3, we expect a production volume at nameplate capacity. Compared to Q2, we expect higher bauxite cost in the range of NOK 50-100 million, driven by changed bauxite mix due to maintenance at Paragominas. Raw material prices are expected to be relatively stable based on current market prices.  Lastly, fixed and other costs are expected to be relatively stable.”

Aluminium Metal

• ~67% of primary production including strategic hedge effects for Q3 2025 priced at USD 2 482 per mt.
• ~58% of premiums affecting Q3 2025 booked at USD ~ 392 per mt.
  • Q3 realized premium expected in the range of USD 330 and 380 per mt.
• Lower raw material costs of between NOK 1 and 1.2 billion, mainly driven by alumina price, including strategic hedge effect.
• Lower fixed costs of NOK 50 -100 million driven by seasonality.
• Sales volumes are expected to remain stable  

Important takeaways from the Q2 2025 Earnings Call:
“For Q3, AM has booked 67% of the primary production at 2 482 USD per tonne. This includes the effect of our strategic hedging program.  Premiums in Europe have continued to soften into Q3. We have booked ~58% of the premiums affecting Q3 at 392 USD per tonne. We expect realized premium in the range of 330 and 380 USD per tonne. 

On the positive side we expect a net decrease in raw material costs of between NOK 1 and 1.2 billion, mainly driven by lower alumina price. This number includes the effect of our internal alumina hedge with B&A.  

We expect seasonally lower fixed costs between NOK 50 and 100 million. Sales volumes are expected to remain stable.”

Metal Markets

•  Seasonally lower recycling volumes
•  Lower results from sourcing and trading activities
•  Continued volatile trading and currency effects
•  Guidance for YE Commercial Adjusted EBITDA excl. currency and inventory effects of NOK 300 - 500 million

Important takeaways from the Q2 2025 Earnings Call:
“For Q3, we expect lower Recycling results driven by seasonally lower recycling volumes. In our Commercial segment, we anticipate a lower contribution from sourcing and trading activities in Q3, partly offset by positive currency effects.  

As always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. Given the speed into the year, we have adjusted the guidance for the Commercial Adjusted EBITDA excl. currency and inventory valuation effects for the full year 2025 to NOK 300 - 500 million.”

Extrusions

•  Higher sales volumes
•  Pressured sales margins
•  Favorable fixed costs
•  Positive metal effect of approximately NOK 200 to 300 million

Important takeaways from the Q2 2025 Earnings Call:
“Looking into Q3 as always, we should look towards the same quarter last year to capture the seasonal developments in Extrusions.  External market estimates suggest positive volume development YoY of 1% for Europe, and a negative development of 1% for North America. In Q2, we outperformed market expectations, and we anticipate this positive trend to continue into the next quarter, with sales volumes expected to exceed market forecasts in both Europe and North America.  

We also expect a positive metal effect of approximately NOK 200 to 300 million if the Midwest premium stays elevated. 

However, we also foresee continued pressure in both Extrusions’ margins and recycling margins, which is expected to be partially offset by decreased fixed costs.”

Energy

• Lower production and net spot sales
• Lower prices and stable price area differences
• Price and volume uncertainty

Important takeaways from the Q2 2025 Earnings Call:
“Looking into Q3, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy.  

For the next quarter, production volumes and prices are expected to decrease, mainly due to seasonally lower consumption. Furthermore, price area differences could stay at a similar level as in Q2."

Additional information

The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the NHY Q2 2025 Presentation.

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q2

(Please note that these numbers are from 18.06.2025 and are meant to be updated by quarter's ending)

	Q2-25	Q1-25	QoQ	YoY
Average LME 3M market rate1)	2 463	2 625	-6%	-4%
Average PAX fob Australia (USD/t) 2)	356	516	-31%	-18%
Energy prices3)
Nordic system NOK/MWh	311	531	-41%	-24%
NO5 NOK/MWh	458	637	-28%	-2%
NO2 NOK/MWh	682	776	-12%	31%
NO3 NOK/MWh	140	271	-48%	-60%
SE1 NOK/MWh	113	183	-38%	-63%
SE2 NOK/MWh	123	172	-28%	-60%
NO2 vs NO3 NOK/MWh	542	505	7%	227%
Currencies4)
Average NOK/USD	10,30	11,08	-7%	-4%
Average BRL/NOK	1,82	1,89	-4%	-12%
Average NOK/EUR	11,67	11,65	0%	1%
Average BRL/USD	5,66	5,86	-3%	9%

Please note that these figures have been updated to reflect the full 1st quarter. 

1) Realized price in AM lags LME market rate with 1-2 months
2) Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag
3) Source: Nordpool
4) Source: Norges Bank